Five NFL predictions

The regular season is finally here. And I'm more excited in years, given the Packers level of play. So, thought I'd toss out five predictions about the upcoming season:

1) The Packers will surprise a lot of people. Yes, some respected national media folk have picked them to make the Super Bowl, but I think they're still under the radar somewhat given all the focus on Brett Favre landing in Minnesota and Jay Cutler settling in Chicago. Overnight, the NFC North became the hottest division in football. But the Pack will fight its way to the division title, and into the Super Bowl (against either San Diego or Pittsburgh).

2) The Wildcat offense is here to stay for awhile. Old-school NFL coaches say it's a fad but I say it's an inevitability when bigger, stronger athletes make it difficult to run, and larger cornerbacks are starting to eat into the big gains passing teams have seen in recent years. The Wildcat essentially creates schemes with 10 blockers and endless opportunitiess, unlike the traditional "QB as specialist" route that's much more predictable. When the best college athlete in 50 years (Tim Tebow) isn't considered an NFL-caliber QB, you have to wonder if the tide is turning. When Miami used a second-round pick on QB Pat White -- far from your typical pro-set college QB -- to supplement the Wildcat schemes it used with some effectiveness in 2008, I thought, OK, this is interesting. My prediction for the 2010 draft: Someone will pick Tebow in the first round (Miami?) and install a full-time Wildcat offense.

3) The new Cowboys stadium is fab. It's a showpiece, an engineering and architectural gem. And despite its $1 billion-pus cost, it'll be a cash cow for Jerry Jones. It will NOT, however, provide home-field advantage for the Cowboys, at least in the short term. The fan focus this season and for the next few years will be on the spectable of the stadium, not the game. Fans spending thousands, even tens and hundreds of thousands of dollars on season tickets, will naturally be distracted by what's around them, not what's in front of them.

4) JaMarcus Russell of the Oakland Raiders will have a better year than Atlanta's Matt Ryan. Ryan got rave reviews last season, and rightly so for being a rookie QB and leading a troubled franchise from the bad taste of Michael Vick. But he was not the second coming. Consider this: In 2008, the often-criticized JRussell had 8 games with an 85 passer rating. Ryan had 9. Russell, despite having weaker players around him, also played much better the second half of the season. My point is not that Russell and the Raiders are better than the Falcons or that Ryan is overrated, but too many people are putting unreasonable expectations on Ryan and a team that has a ways to go. Despite the personnel chaos this past year, I see Oakland being a little better this year, with more punch on offense. And I think Russell will start to shake some of the talk that he's a first-round bust (although he'll never be truly great until he puts in the hard work all year long that's common among people like Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, etc.)

5) The Brett Favre experiment will not pay off for Minnesota. And let's face it, it's Super Bowl or bust for the Vikes given Favre's age, the team's salary cap and coach Brad Childress being on the hot seat. Here's why I think it'll fail: Favre will be 40 so aches and pains heal more slowly as the season goes on, he's playing half his games indoors where he's tended to underperform, and he's got the flip-flopping Childress making key decisions. Supporters say all he has to do is hand the ball to Adrian Peterson, and throw 15 times a game to keep the defense on edge. I just don't see him ceding that spotlight and playing second fiddle. He will get in over his skis and blow key drives because he still thinks he can pull off unbelievable plays.

Couple other things: Green Bay let Favre go for a variety of reasons, but a key was in recent seasons he shut down late in the season when he was beat up and the weather got cold. Unless Minnesota earns home-field advantage and Favre learns to play indoors, that will be an issue. Finally, many NFL players consider Favre a diva and are sick of his selfish "I'm in, I'm out" approach to life. Defensive players will be hunting his head, and his own team will be divided -- if they're not already -- the first time he tosses a few stupid picks and blames receivers for running the wrong route.

Now, let's settle in for a long day of Week 1 football!

Update on Monday, October 12, 2009 at 10:50 AM by Logan Molen

Quick update on my predictions after the first quarter of the NFL season:

I'm still good on Nos. 1-3. So far, the Russell prediction is blowing up in my face, big time. There's still a lot of season left, but, wow, has he been underwhelming.

And, as for the Favre prediction, he's been playing like a master so far this season. But the reason Green Bay opted to go with Rodgers instead of Favre is #4's propensity to break down late in the season. So, the jury is still out on that prediction.

Update on Friday, December 11, 2009 at 6:01 PM by Logan Molen

Second follow-up, two-thirds of the way into the season.

For No. 1, I still feel good about this one. Green Bay is on a roll, and peaking at the right time as they grown into their new defense and the offensive line settles. Three of Green Bay's four losses have come against Minnesota and Cincinnati, not exactly pushovers (the loss against then-winless Tampa was inexcusable, I'll grant you that).

No. 2: The Wildcat is still a factor. Can you say "Tim Tebow in Jacksonville next season?"

No. 3: I'll take a bullet on this one, although in retrospective it's obvious I didn't look at Dallas' home schedule in making this prediction. Dallas is 5-1 at home, with wins over Carolina, Atlanta, Seattle, Washington and Oakland, with the lone loss coming to the Giants. So, not exactly a bunch of juggernauts there, but hey, 5-1 at home is solid.

No. 4: As I noted four weeks ago, I blew this one. I was correct in predicting that Matt Ryan was in for a fall (he's ranked 21st in QB rating) but Russell has fallen off a cliff and might never make it back up.

No. 5: Jury is still out. Favre slipped badly last week (Green Bay fans know that's a sign December has arrived) but he's still had a magnificent season and will be playing half of December indoors. I'm a Packers fan, so am hoping he fades. I'll check back in on this one in January.